In a twist to France’s political trajectory, Marine Le Pen – leader of the National Rally (RN) and frontrunner for the 2027 presidential race – has been convicted of embezzling public funds. On March 31, the Paris Criminal Court sentenced her to four years in prison, two of which under house arrest, alongside a €100,000 fine. However, what truly turned heads was not just the severity but the political implications of this verdict: an immediate five-year ban from holding public office.
Le Pen has already taken a decisive stance towards this verdict, describing the accusations as a ‘political witch hunt’. This resentment quickly spread beyond borders, reaching Trump, Putin and Orbán, who claimed as a chorus that this decision represents a threat to the French democracy.
Is this allegation true? The short answer is no, although if framed in a certain way, it might look like one. If we compare it to Turkey’s repression of Ekrem Imamoglu, we can see a clear difference. In France, an independent judiciary delivered the sentence, whereas, in Turkey, it was the executive power – Erdogan – that used the judiciary power to exclude his opposition – Imamoglu – from the presidential race.
Still, the political fallout could be paradoxically empowering for RN for several reasons. First, le RN already enjoys the majority in the parliament, and as protests have erupted across France framing Le Pen as a martyr of the system, the party might gain more support ahead of the next election. Second, even if Le Pen might not be able to run, the party is ready to pull the card of the young Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s ‘dauphin’. Although considered too young and inexperienced to run for president – he is 29 years old -, Bardella has already proven to be a suitable heir of his mentor. He was on the front lines during the last cycle of elections, and Marine Le Pen herself has endorsed him. If this frame of the ‘political witch hunt’ continues to gain traction among the French public, then it might even overshadow the presumed unpreparedness of Bardella, who might poll at 36% at the first turn, mirroring Le Pen’s numbers. To conclude, it remains an open question and a situation to monitor, but regardless of Le Pen’s appeal, her political shadow still looms and the RN will prove adaptable, as already proved in the past.
